In the first half of the year, the dealership inventory index is approaching 70%. The auto market is expected to decline in February.

Since the beginning of February, a number of car companies have released transcripts for the first month of the year. After undergoing an overall slowdown in the growth of the auto market last year, the large increase in production and sales of automobile companies in January was seen as completing 2018. The "good start" for annual sales.

In this regard, Tian Feng Securities analyst Deng Xue said that from the terminal point of view, the recovery is mainly due to the gradual weakening of the purchase tax declining effect and the Spring Festival consumption stimulus, both of these factors are expected to continue until the Spring Festival.


After the Spring Festival, the "Securities Daily" reporter recently visited a number of 4S stores in Qingdao and discovered that although it has opened for business, many employees are on duty only in the store. A number of dealers privately told reporters that the sales forecast for February is "not high."

At the same time, unlike the dazzling performance of the “come-in-a-glance” sales of car manufacturers, dealers seem to have assumed greater sales pressure. According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association recently, the inventory warning index for dealers in January has risen to 67.2%, up 19.5% from the previous month. According to public data, this figure has exceeded 60% only three times since 2016.

In this regard, industry insiders said that this year, some car companies require dealers to increase the number of delivery sprint opener performance, and seize the previous year's car market, leading to pressure on dealers and even the entire operating sector.

Pre-holiday consumer warm up

"Securities Daily" reporter recently visited the southern district of Qingdao, Laoshan District, a number of 4S shop learned that since last December, many 4S shops ushered in the store to see the small number of cars peak. “Part of the owners are buying cars for the Chinese New Year,” and a VW brand dealer told reporters that “half months before the Spring Festival, it should be the final sales sprint. After all, we must also set aside time for licensing.”

Insiders pointed out that since the New Year's Day purchase tax policy was adjusted in 2018, many auto manufacturers have chosen to “purse their own pockets” to ensure the continuity of purchase tax preferential policies in early 2018 in order to attract consumers to continue buying cars. At the same time, the reporter learned from the 4S shop in Qingdao in some brands that the manufacturers provided a series of preferential activities for the Spring Festival.

Among them, DS 6 models offer 15,000 yuan; Geely Automobile's full range of models "subsidy 2.5% purchase tax, extended to February 28th," Imperial prices straight down 13,000 yuan; Changan CS35 promotional discount 7,300 yuan; Toyota Crown limited time discount 2.5 Million; Volkswagen Sagitar offers 23,000 yuan.

In this context, according to the sales data of the first months of the year disclosed by various car companies, many car companies have achieved a good start in January. Among them, in terms of self-owned brands, Geely's single-month sales exceeded 150,000, an increase of 51% year-on-year; Great Wall Motor sold 110,040 new vehicles in January, an increase of 20.61% over the same period of last year.

In terms of joint venture brands, FAW-Volkswagen Group's January sales volume was 168,800 units, up 14% year-on-year, and terminal sales amounted to 132,000 units, an increase of 10% year-on-year. Guangqi Honda's terminal sales reached 70,811 units in January, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. Dongfeng Honda sold 55,363 units in January, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year.

Dealer inventory pressure

According to data from the Automobile Industry Association, the national automobile production and sales volume in January was 2.688 million and 2.809 million, respectively, which was 13.6% and 11.6% higher than the same period of last year, and was down 11.6% and 8.2% respectively.

In this regard, industry sources pointed out that the 2017 Spring Festival holiday has 5 days in January, and January this year is a complete month of car purchase, so the transcript of January this year is based on an increase of 5 working days from the same period last year. Realized. Compared with last December, it has more reference value, but the result is a decline in the chain ratio.

In fact, for the opening year performance of the auto market, Assistant Secretary-General Chen Shihua of the China Automobile Industry Association believes that the increase in production and sales in January will be greatly affected by the increase in working days and policy changes. In his opinion, we should not be blindly optimistic about the rapid growth in January compared to the same period in the previous year. It was defined as a good start. It still depends on the overall situation in February and even the first quarter.

After experiencing the pre-holiday market recovery, some dealers told reporters that there was no high expectation for sales in February and “may be relatively flat”. After all, “the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on sales disruption can not be ignored. ".

In the afternoon of February 21st, the reporter visited a number of 4S stores in the Qingdao area and found that although it has opened for business, some of the staff in the store are only on duty. A dealer who declined to be named told reporters, "According to the experience of previous years, this period of time was mainly for residents of neighboring communities to come to the store to look at the car, consult the model and price information."

At the same time, the reporter learned from the China Automobile Dealers Association that the inventory warning index of automobile dealers in January was 67.2%, which was a 19.5% increase from the previous month. It was above the warning line and became the highest value since 2016.

In response, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that just after entering the first month, such a high index will be harvested. Dealers and even the whole business will face greater pressure, and the auto market will be very severe this year.

Statistics show that in January 2018, China’s auto consumption index was 25.4, and consumer demand was sluggish. It is expected that the market will be affected by factors such as Spring Festival holiday in February. Sales volume will still be at a relatively low level, the demand subindex is 10.6, and consumer demand for car purchases The new low; entry score of 11.8, consumers are not willing to shop to see the car; purchase sub index of 16.1, the consumer's willingness to actually trade is weak. Lang Xuehong said that considering the impact of comprehensive factors, in 2018 China's auto production and sales will be in-depth adjustments, auto manufacturers and distributors should do early to deal with.

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