Domestic oil prices will decline for the first time in more than seven months and are expected to exceed RMB 100. The cost of travel will be narrowed slightly during the Spring Festival holidays.


"Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies, February 9 domestic refined oil prices will usher in a new round of adjustment window, is expected to cut down is a high probability event, this is the first time in the year, but also more than 7 months For the first time, it is expected that the rate will exceed 100 yuan, and the cost of travel during the Spring Festival holiday will narrow slightly.

On January 26th, after the domestic refined oil price was raised, the US crude oil output further increased, and the downward pressure on international oil prices increased. Although the demand data for petroleum products during the period showed strong performance, and Goldman Sachs raised its price expectations, and brought about optimistic expectations for the market, oil prices closed higher. However, after the US dollar bottomed out, the surge in active drilling rigs in the United States further weighed on and the international oil price fell again.

As of the close of February 6, the light crude oil futures prices for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.76 to close at $63.39 per barrel, a decrease of 1.18%. In April, London Brent crude oil futures fell 0.76 US dollars to close at 66.86 US dollars a barrel, a decrease of 1.14%.

As a result, the domestic reference rate of crude oil changes from positive to negative and continues to fall, resulting in the current round of price adjustment from stranded expectations to a decline. Zhuochuang information and data show that the crude oil change rate as of the 8th working day in China as of February 6 is -1.98%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel reduction rate is RMB 106/ton, which is far more than RMB 50/tonne as stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission. Price adjustment line.

Zheng Mingya, analyst of Zhuochuang Information, judged that from the news, the negative news from the oil-producing countries and the bottoming out of the US dollar will form a certain pressure on the trend of short-term crude oil. From a technical point of view, if the continued lack of good news injection in the late period, European and American crude oil will most likely form a wave of decline after falling below the support level. As a result, the domestic reference crude oil rate of change will continue to deepen negatively, and the probability of lowering oil prices for the first time this year will continue to increase.

Jinlianchuang Zou Xuelian also said that as of the sixth working day of February 6, the average price of reference crude oil was 66.53 US dollars per barrel, the rate of change of -1.29%, corresponding to gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced 95 yuan / ton. There are only three working days left from the price adjustment window. Crude oil will continue to operate at a weaker level in the later period. Therefore, the current round of oil prices will be reduced to a high probability event. This will be the first round of the year's downward adjustment and will be lowered again after more than seven months. It is expected that the price will decrease. The price of diesel will be reduced by more than 100 yuan.

It is understood that since July 21, 2017, the domestic retail price of refined oil products has opened nine price adjustment windows, and all cashed up.

“Although the current round of retail price cuts are limited, the end of the upswing of the retail price up to six months is still happy for end-users. Moreover, this round of adjustments coincides with the Lunar New Year, private cars have gone out, and the radius of travel has increased. Gasoline consumption increased, and travel costs can be reduced by a small amount. At the same time, gas stations still have concessions, so there is little pressure to travel. However, during the holiday season, logistics and transport have basically stopped, and diesel prices have fallen slightly, with little impact on the terminal.” Saussurea said.



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